SoftBank’s Strategic Bet: Reinforcing Robotics and AI Synergies with ABB 

For SoftBank, the investment will be directly conducted by the group rather than its Vision Fund, signalling a long-term strategic interest in ABB’s robotics business, rather than a short-term financial exit. The deal valued ABB Robotics at $5.4 billion, with an implied FY24 EV/EBITDA multiple of 17.2x, broadly in line with other major industrial transactions (typically 12–18x). Midea’s 15x multiple for KUKA suggests SoftBank is paying a modest premium – negligible given the current AI robotics hype cycle, where emerging players command far higher valuations.

SoftBank and its founder, Masayoshi Son, have a long history of investing in the robotics sector. Between 2021 and 2024, SoftBank invested in several robot companies that are covered in our research, including Berkshire Grey and AutoStore (warehouse and mobile robots), Agile Robots (collaborative robots), and Fourier (humanoid robots). Mr. Son is also a strong supporter of AI technology and has invested in several major companies in the AI sector, such as chip design firm Arm and OpenAI.

With this background, Mr. Son emphasized the concept of ‘artificial super intelligence’ through the acquisition of ABB Robotics. ABB’s expertise in robotics hardware and motion control can create good synergies with the AI companies invested in by SoftBank, and will complement SoftBank’s robotics portfolio, creating a strategy spanning from industrial robots and mobile robots to general-purpose AI technologies.

However, SoftBank has yet to establish a successful track record in robotics investments. This deal marks its first acquisition in the industrial robotics area, and it remains to be seen whether its IT-industry culture can effectively integrate with the industrial engineering tradition at ABB Robotics.

ABB’s Strategic Spin-Off in a Shifting Market

For ABB, its robotics division accounted for 7% of group revenue in 2024, and it has consistently ranked among the top four global industrial robot manufacturers over the past decade. However, the competitive landscape has intensified in the post-COVID era, with more Asian manufacturers emerging in the market. ABB’s global market share has declined from 12% in 2018 to 10.5% in 2024 in terms of robot hardware revenue, according to our research. In the meantime, the market of traditional industrial robots is also stabilizing, with shipment growth shifting from double-digit to single-digit rates.

The next wave of growth in the industrial robot market is expected to be closely tied to the development of AI, which can facilitate robot adoption and integration. This will help lower the barriers to robotic automation for SMEs and expanding the potential application scenarios and capabilities of robots.

Considering the intensive competition in traditional robotics, established manufacturers like ABB will need to lead the charge in AI-driven robotics to protect their margins. However, achieving this will require significant investment, particularly as these manufacturers are proficient in robotics kinematics and industrial control but are less engaged in AI and software. The substantial long-term R&D costs may be a key factor behind ABB’s decision to sell its robotics business.

Implications on the Industrial Robot Market Landscape

As a member of the global ‘Big 4’ (Fanuc, Yaskawa, ABB, KUKA) in the industrial robotics sector, the change of ownership of ABB Robotics will likely have significant and long-term implications for the market landscape. Under SoftBank’s ownership, ABB’s robotics business is likely to continue prioritizing profitability while accelerating its move towards the ‘AI + robotics’ strategy.

This move may push ABB’s competitors, particularly the other ‘Big 4’ players, to accelerate collaborations with AI and software companies or bring in investors, ensuring they have the resources to stay competitive in the AI-driven robotics space.

If the deal is successfully completed as planned in 2026, SoftBank will establish itself as a leading player in the industrial robotics sector. ABB’s robotics business could benefit from SoftBank’s broader portfolio, potentially expanding its market share in Japan, the US, and sectors such as data centers and semiconductors. However, SoftBank may choose not to heavily engage in the highly competitive Chinese market.

Final Thoughts

SoftBank’s acquisition of ABB Robotics presents an exciting opportunity to strengthen its AI-driven robotics strategy, but there are also challenges on the road ahead. One notable risk is the integration of SoftBank’s IT-focused culture with ABB’s deeply rooted industrial engineering practices. Additionally, while SoftBank’s broader portfolio and financial backing could provide ABB Robotics with valuable support, the commercialization of AI in industrial robots is still in its early stages, primarily focused on areas like robot programming and AI vision-guided robots. Mr. Son’s emphasis on ‘artificial super intelligence’ highlights the potential of AI to transform the sector, but the successful application of AI in complex industrial settings, such as factories, still requires further technological development. As the competitive landscape continues to evolve, the ability to address both technological and cultural integration risks will be critical in determining the success of this strategic investment.