According to the latest Collaborative Robot Market – 2025 report from Interact Analysis, the global collaborative robot (cobot) industry, having hit a cyclical rock bottom in 2024, is poised for a new growth cycle. However, market divergence and structural transformation will continue to intensify over the coming years.

By 2029, shipments will be ~125,000 units (with a forecast 2025-2029 CAGR of 20%), yet revenue will lag at ~$2.5 billion, constrained by persistent Average Revenue Per Unit (ARPU) erosion (-3 to -5% per year post-2025).

Global shipments of cobots are expected to grow at a CAGR of 20% from 2025-2029

Market Cycle Analysis: From Trough to Differential Recovery

In 2024, as manufacturing demand continued to wane, the collaborative robot market bottomed out again and shipment growth dipped to 13.8%, following on from a fall of 14.3% in 2023. However, the automotive sector demonstrated remarkable resilience in 2024 and the semiconductor/electronics segments showed signs of recovery. This convergence of factors, combined with supply chain problems and stubborn inflation, saw 2024 mark the lowest trough in the market cycle.

In 2025 to 2026, we forecast the market will enter an a period of acceleration.  Shipment growth for 2025 is projected to rebound to 20.6%, propelled by demand from the semiconductor and logistics sectors, along with the recovery of the electronics segment in the second half of the year. By 2026, the market will peak, as pent-up demand for industrial upgrades meets with the emergence of new application scenarios, such as high-payload logistics, agriculture, and healthcare.

In the long term, the market is anticipated to maintain a 20% CAGR from 2025 to 2029. Yet, this overall growth masks significant regional disparities. China is on track for a volume-driven expansion, with shipments expected to reach 70,000 units by 2029. In contrast, Western markets will focus on revenue growth through application-specific adoption.

Regional Fragmentation: Two Distinct Cobot Ecosystems

China has emerged as a powerhouse in terms of shipment volumes. It is expected to account for 70% of global incremental growth through to 2029. This surge is primarily fueled by demand from the electronics sector, which consumes 34% of domestic shipments, as well as from the education and new energy sectors. Nevertheless, China faces a pricing paradox. Despite the increasing adoption of high-payload models (over 10kg) – which are projected to increase market share from 25% in 2024 to over 30% by 2029 – the average selling price (ASP) is anticipated to decline by more than 10% from 2024 to 2029. This decline is largely attributed to the impact of low-cost models with payloads of less than 5kg diluting the market.

On the other hand, growth in the EMEA and Americas regions are expected to lag behind China. This is mainly due to the sluggish investment in automation we are seeing in EMEA(automotive is predicted to be weaken in 2025-2026), exacerbated by Europe’s weak economy, and concerns over tariffs in the US. In markets outside China, the automotive sector remains the core pillar, accounting for 31.8% of revenue, in stark contrast to China’s electronics-dominated landscape. The price wars in China (primarily responsible for global revenue growth of less than 10% in 2024), coupled with the high-cost technology path pursued in EMEA and the Americas, are further intensifying global market fragmentation.

Product evolution: A range of factors influence pricing

The share of medium- and large -payload models (>10kg) is anticipated to grow from 25% in 2024 to over 30% by 2029. Models with payloads exceeding 20kg are expected to experience the fastest growth. Despite this upward trend in large payload models, the global average selling price (ASP) is still expected to decrease by over 10% in the next five years, primarily driven by price reductions in China.

However, after 2025, annual price erosion is projected to narrow to -3 to -5%, down from the previous rate of over 5%. This is attributed to the premiums commanded by high-payload models and value-added features such as AI and machine vision, which partially offset price declines.

The pricing paradox can be explained by the “scale effect” of low-cost Chinese models (with payloads of less than 5kg). This effect suppresses the price-increasing impact of heavier models.

Application scenarios: Emerging demand rises, technology integration is key

In 2024, material handling and assembly, as the two largest applications for collaborative robots, together accounted for over 50% of global revenues. Welding applications have shown remarkable growth, accounting for a revenue share of 27.8% in 2023 and 22.6% in 2024. This has been driven by the recovery of the automotive and machinery sectors, as well as the premium pricing associated with large payload cobots. Testing/inspection applications have also witnessed growth of over 20%, fueled by integration with machine vision for precision tasks. And long-tail markets for cobots are beginning to emerge, with demand coming from non-traditional sectors such as agriculture (33% growth in 2024) and restaurant/service (17.6% growth).

A technology inflection point has been reached. In scenarios demanding high accuracy and repeatability, such as assembly and positioning, cobots are accelerating the replacement of traditional robots. Meanwhile, in scenarios with low payload and speed requirements, the adoption of cobots is becoming more straightforward.

Cobots market growth drivers and headwinds

Labor shortages, the shift towards flexible manufacturing, the expansion of e-commerce logistics, and the penetration of automation in services continue to be robust drivers of growth. However, new challenges are emerging. Large orders exceeding 100 units test the capacity of manufacturers and their supply chain management capabilities. Additionally, price wars have already reduced global ARPU (average revenue per unit). The 2024 global revenue forecast has been revised downward by 5%.

In summary, the collaborative robotics market is undergoing a decisive transformation from broad-based expansion to structural growth. Winning strategies will focus on regional specialization, such as China’s dominance in electronics and the Western automotive ecosystems. Companies will also expand into high-growth applications like welding and inspection, or explore blue ocean markets such as agriculture and services. Furthermore, integrating AI and vision technologies into high-payload models will be crucial to sustaining value amid pricing pressures.

For more information on our Collaborative Robots report, download a brochure or reach out to Maya Xiao.